Predicting the outcome of primaries and elections can become addictive but it's a pastime that leaves you feeling empty. It's just numbers that might or might not be real.
Much more satisfying is to read the
comments to articles on the various campaigns—where readers leave intelligent
comments, that is. Like the New York Times, which draws pretty informed readers.
Recently it ran an op-ed
piece on whether a highly contested nomination process damages a Party or
not and if yes how much.
Relating to this Presidential race and the
Democratic nomination, the author speculated on Hillary Clinton's ability to
gain the allegiance of Bernie Sanders' supporters if she wins the nomination.
I've read in other media reports and on
Facebook that Clinton supporters will vote for Sanders if he wins the
nomination, but the reverse isn't true; a lot of Sanders supporters are saying
they won't vote at all if their hero doesn't win the nomination, citing all
sorts of conspiracy theories about how corrupt Clinton and the Democratic Party
are. The comments and 'recommends' on this NYT article backed that up.
I've heard the argument that it means
Sanders is the better candidate, but it doesn't mean that at all: it means that
Clinton supporters understand what's at stake and are not willing to sacrifice
their country.
Sanders and his supporters generally
consider themselves to be on moral high ground; they are the ones who haven't
been brainwashed, who care the most about democracy, the poor, the middle class…
Yet, what's at stake in this Presidential
election is the middle class, the very poor, human rights in practically every
category, a GOP-skewed Supreme Court, added heft to the military industrial
complex and to major corporations that do control politicians in Congress, and
internationally, America going back to the world despising it. I think about
Susan Sarandon saying, from the comfort of her million dollar home and life in
LA, that if Bernie loses the nomination she would welcome a GOP president and
Congress because then everything would fall apart.
And who would be hurt the most? Obviously
not Susan Sarandon. How is anybody going to undo the damage of a skewed Supreme
Court? What kind of moral high ground is
that? The dangerous kind.
It's the kind that led Sanders to once give
his enthusiastic support to Fidel Castro, brushing aside the executions, the
corruption, the suppression of opposition and the media with "sure, there
are some problems".
Well, there are some problems now, too.
Sanders has woken up and nurtured a beast which has the label "liberal" but is
actually more angry than anything else. And not controllable. Bernie and Jane have
said explicitly that they will support Hillary Clinton if she's nominated. But
#FeelTheBern-ers think they know better than the man they adulate. It will
break his heart if a GOP candidate wins, or if the chance of Congress changing
hands is destroyed by his own supporters.
