Musk and Trump Inhabit a House of Cards

 

Musk and Trump. The media is in a frenzy about them, about the power they allegedly wield, and where that will lead the US and the world as Musk sniffs around for new meat; Neo-Nazis in Germany and Reform in the UK. 

The facade these two men present looks powerful and it’s easy to assume that strategy underlies all their behaviour, then to extrapolate from that into what the future might hold. But given the underlying dynamics of their personalities, it’s more likely that they’re just shooting from the hip whenever they feel like it. They're both massively over-entitled and assume, for different reasons, that they're invincible and can get away with anything; that consequences are for the little people, not giants like them. 

However, they're also both intensely dysfunctional, neurotic and consumed with lust for power and attention. We don't hear much about the war of egos between them, but of course it's happening. Trump wanted Musk for his money, but he can find that elsewhere; I'm sure there are plenty of wealthy sycophants queueing up outside his door, salivating. He’s terrified of going to jail and that’s his main driver, but he’s aging fast, often looks exhausted and drained, and what little mental acuity he had is deteriorating rapidly. He can’t control Musk, let alone himself. 

Musk, on the other hand, is getting increasingly reckless, flying close to the sun, making enemies everywhere and a fool of Trump. But his wings are made of wax. He has periods of depression and has been microdosing ketamine for a long time. He insists it’s is under control but when has he ever told the truth? He is reported to take extra doses of it, and LSD, cocaine, psychedelic mushrooms and ecstasy at social events. There is concern in the business community about the effects of his drug use on the six companies and billions of assets he oversees and that he’s neglecting them for the bright lights of politics. 

Which he’s failing at abysmally. Tesla sales in Europe have dropped by 40%, attributed to anger at Musk’s support of Trump. Tesla investor Ross Gerber was highly critical of Musk’s promotion of the far right. 

Musk is making as much of a mess in the political arena as he did with Twitter. A lot of advertisers and users left for BlueSky but many of the latter kept both accounts and use their Twitter to attack him. ‘Elon Musk’ was trending the other day, with 1.15m posts. A cursory glance showed only negativity, derision, hatred. 

Over-entitlement is a deadly disease for those infected with it. It always provides fuel for initial success in the world but it’s inseparable from self-delusion so the success trajectory has a limit. Once it’s reached, it’s downhill all the way, baby. 

To get back to politics, Musk and Trump, surrounded by equally neurotic and dysfunctional sycophantic politicians, are randomly creating havoc, unaware that they’ve already reached their peak, both of them. Early reports after the election that Trump won a huge landslide and has a thonking majority have turned out to be a myth. The recent debacle over the debt ceiling illustrated that beautifully. In the House, Republicans can get nothing done without Democrats. And this time, 38 Republicans rebelled against Trump and Musk. 

The whole Republican structure is a fragile house of cards. Republicans may not want to admit it, and the media may not be reporting on it much, but they share the political arena with Democrats who are determined, strong, united, smart and capable of insightful and effective strategy. They’re also committed to protecting democracy and to serving those they represent. During Biden’s term of office they have worked consistently with Republicans to save spending bills, but when Trump is president they won’t be so accommodating, so he’ll have to take the heat for his and Musk’s out-of-control incompetence. If Musk is even around by January 20. 

This writer believes that despite the trifecta – Republicans controlling the Senate and the House and the White House – Democrats will prevail; they will regain control in mid-terms and the White House in 2028. And Musk and Trump will eventually be consigned to the dirt bin of history. Where they belong.

Congress Republicans Backed into a Corner as President Obama Stands Firm

On the 8th of October, eight days into the government shutdown, President Obama spoke from the White House about the need for Congress to understand that funding the government and paying the nation’s bills are not bargaining chips, they are part of Congress’s primary role. He said “…members of Congress - and the House Republicans in particular - don't get to demand ransom in exchange for doing their jobs. And two of their very basic jobs are passing a budget and making sure that America is paying its bills."

Obama’s message has been consistent throughout the government shutdown crisis. He will not negotiate with blackmailers. He has said a number of times that if a person blackmails you once, they'll do it again. And again and again. 

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid agrees with him. His stand is ‘open the government, raise the debt ceiling and we’ll negotiate’. Colleagues and aides have said recently that in all his 25 years in the Senate Reid has never been this outraged or aggressively proactive. House Republicans have crossed a line in his opinion. As Democrat Senator Patty Murray said of Reid, “He feels passionately that if we allow our country to be run by hostage-taking - ‘I feel [strongly] about an issue, and I’m going to shut down the government unless I get my way’ - it is bad for today, it’s bad for tomorrow, it’s bad for democracy.”

On October 6 President Obama had spoken at FEMA and challenged Boehner on his stand that he didn’t put a clean CR to a vote because there wasn’t a bi-partisan majority to pass it (despite that Democrats and even some House Republicans having said there was one).

“If [some] Republicans and Speaker Boehner are saying there are not enough votes, then they should prove it. Let the bill go to the floor and let’s see what happens. Just vote. Let every member of Congress vote their conscience and they can determine whether or not they want to shut the government down. My suspicion is, my very strong suspicion is, that there are enough votes there.” That suspicion has been shared by many all along. If Boehner was telling the truth he had nothing to lose by putting it to the vote.

Congress has played this game since Obama began his presidency – of taking a hard line when the stakes were high and pushing Obama and Democrats to making concessions. In the beginning Obama was willing to be flexible because that, he has insisted, is what democracy is all about. But he’s also said that when it matters he knows how to draw his line in the sand.

That’s the part that Congress didn't believe. With the government shutdown and their job approval ratings according to Gallup at 11%, one percentage point higher than their lowest in Gallup history, they blindly tried the same tactic again recently when Obama invited the House to speak with him. John Boehner said last Sunday, after that invitation was issued, that he would not let a default happen, which got him a few kudos for a day or so because most people believed he was saying he wouldn't participate in blackmail again.

But they were wrong. What he didn't say on Sunday was that his idea of not letting the default happen was to continue the blackmail but with the stakes so high that the President and the Senate would have no option but to cave. 

He and his Tea Party backers not only proved Obama to have understood them perfectly, but they also miscalculated badly. Neither Obama nor the Democrats caved and the House has truly backed itself into a corner with the debt default date looming - something that even hard-core members like Ted Cruz have begun to realize. He's not making any grand speeches these days.

Perhaps they've finally looked at the polls and realized where reality lies. They're still whining about Democrats and the President refusing to negotiate but they're sounding embarrassingly pitiful now. With Congress job approval ratings virtually at an historic all-time low, overall favorability is at 28%, down from 38% in September (as opposed to Democrat job approval at 43%). As for the Tea Party, the highest support it’s ever had was 32% in late 2010. That support has dwindled to 22%.

It becomes clearer and clearer that the Tea Party isn't interested in democracy but wants to impose its will on a reluctant American electorate. It seems to have a vested interest in the Republican party imploding, even if it means that the US economy falls apart. They clearly see themselves as David versus Goliath and a new world order emerging with them triumphantly heralding it in. The point they haven’t apparently grasped is that a new world order always has a huge groundswell moving it with a fully representative leader. This group of political bandits hasn’t just taken on Obama, they’ve pit themselves against the voters, actually creating a groundswell - of opposition to themselves. 

It’s very strange in a civilized country to see a political party so blinded by self-delusion and behave so stupidly and self-destructively as this one has since 2008. 

The Republican Party is a rag-tag bunch now, disintegrating at the speed of light. Controlled by a group addicted to blackmail and gambling, unable to see or acknowledge how lousy they are at both. 

It was always going to be difficult for Republicans at the 2016 elections as their main support base – older whites – dies off and as minority groups become increasingly franchised. But they’re making it worse for themselves, actively doing all the dirty work for Democrats, making it even easier for them way ahead of the next elections. It defies belief. If there are any sensible Republican politicians, now is the time for them to show leadership and fiercely lobby for what the American voters really want - a clean CR and to raise the debt ceiling - and show the electorate that not all Republican politicians are gamblers and hostage takers. 

But it doesn’t look as if that’s going to happen. More moderate Republicans in Congress are being more open about their desire to stop the hostage taking but so far none of them seem to have the courage to really take a stand against the Tea Party. No  wonder. Those who have, have lost Tea Party funding and support. The President isn't the only who's been blackmailed. 

All of which casts a pretty optimistic light on 2016; a Democrat President, Democrat Senate, Democrat Congress. 

It’s a tragedy of history that President Obama hasn’t had that kind of support, solely because of an undercurrent of racism and fear of losing status quo that is still embedded deep into the psyche of so many Americans, so deep that it's unacknowledged and hotly denied. But it's an absolute triumph that he has established a legacy that will impact on the US and the world for a long time. He is the man who has truly heralded in a new world order, the leader of a genuine groundswell in America with a genuinely representative leader. When change happens, whether it's in an individual or a nation, all the entrenched, destructive old ways fight to the death. That's what we're seeing here: the death rattle of the old order.

Congress Reaps the Reward of their Blackmail as the Debt Ceiling Crisis Looms

Republicans in Congress are reaping the rewards of their blackmail tactics as public disgust and scorn grow daily; as Obamacare /Affordable Care Act rolls out and more people actually understand what it’s about and that it benefits them; and as the next crisis aka the debt ceiling deadline looms. 

This isn’t the first time this Congress has tried governing by blackmail. The last time they caved; this time they didn’t, but they haven’t got many kudos for it, from Democrat or Republican voters. Everybody, except for the hell-raisers in Congress, is worn out and out of patience with the stupidity that has governed Congress lately and resulted in disaster for so many. The hell-raisers have celebrated, with Michelle Bachman quoted by the Washington Post as saying “We’re very excited. It’s exactly what we wanted and we got it.” but clearly she and her ilk didn’t think about the consequences of their desires.  

Now that more than a million are having to work without pay, and 800,000 others are on forced leave, Congress is scrabbling to save face, backing down, trying to pass piecemeal bills to protect those who have been disastrously affected by their actions.

Too little too late. President Obama and Democrats are standing firm. No compromise on this because the stakes are too high. If they allow government by blackmail they set a dangerous precedent. Members of Congress and especially Speaker Boehner are still doing all they can to point the blame at the Senate for refusing to compromise but few are buying it.

And now the debt ceiling crisis looms. Boehner has been making a point of talking privately and publicly about his determination to raise the debt ceiling, but what he says now and what he actually does could possibly be worlds apart.

He has said that if necessary he’ll work with Democrats in Congress and even break the informal Hastert Rule – which requires a bill to have a Republican majority support. What stopped him doing that up until now? He had only to present a bill to keep government open, without any blackmail conditions attached, and it would have been passed by Democrats and moderate Republicans in the House. No showdown. No shutdown. No consequences to millions. No scrabbling about now trying to fix things that broke real fast.

It was all up to Boehner, but he allowed himself to be caught between rationality and what the voting public wants, and conservatives pushing an agenda that hurt the majority and who have only a small voting public support base but who have the power to have him fired. Boehner chose to keep his job.

Now he’s going to be up against the same fight, and that’s what happens when you align yourself with thugs. With the debt ceiling, the only new factor is his powerful business connections. Are they powerful and influential enough to ensure that he doesn't lose his job if does what they want in the face of resistance from hardliners? Because it’s hard to imagine that the Tea Party members of Congress won’t try the same blackmail tactics.  

Boehner has gotten praise for his comments but it looks as if he's trying to placate his powerful connections and a public that is openly fed up with Congress. Either that or he's trying to raise people's hopes so high that the Tea Party members and their support won't dare to try and hold the country hostage again. The problem is that they've already shown they aren't that smart; they don't read the polls or notice anything outside the bubble of their own self-delusions. Again, to quote Michele Bachmann, this time speaking on the Hannity Show two days ago (as reported on MEDIAite), “This is about the happiest I’ve seen members in a long time because we’ve seen we’re starting to win this dialogue on a national level.” 

So chances are they'll do it again. And again. As Senator Harry Reid said, “You know with a bully you cannot let them slap you around, because they slap you around today, they slap you five or six times tomorrow.” 

President Obama, speaking recently on CNBC, said “It is not unusual for Democrats and Republicans to disagree. That’s the way our founders designed our government; democracy is messy. “But when you have a situation in which a faction is willing potentially to default on US Government obligations then we are in trouble. And if they’re willing to do it now they’ll be willing to do it later.

“One thing that I often hear is ‘well Mr. President, even if they’re being unreasonable, why can’t you just go ahead and do something that makes them happy now?’

“What I have to remind people is that what we’re debating right now is keeping the government open for two months! We would then be going through this exact same thing in the middle of Christmas shopping season…and then we’d have to go through it again six months from now and six months after that. And one thing that I know the American people are tired of - and I have to assume the vast majority of businesses are tired of – is this constant governing from crisis to crisis. So in that sense, do we need to break that fever? Absolutely.”

Speaking about a week ago, he said this: “If Republicans do not like the law, they can go through the regular channels and processes to try to change it. That's why we have elections.”